Positive Momentum Persists for Solar Energy Despite the US Federal Policy Changes

As of early 2025, the year-over-year growth of solar energy equipment among America’s utilities has increased by approximately 10%. While this figure reflects a notable decrease from the 33% growth recorded in 2024, as well as the 29% average annual growth rate observed since 2015, the resilience of the sector, despite reduced federal support, is seen across states. 

The deceleration is attributed to the uncertainty stemming from the cuts to subsidies and tax incentives for renewable energy implemented by the Trump administration. Nonetheless, market experts anticipate a surge in solar infrastructure development in advance of the 2026 federal tax credit deadline for solar systems. These forecasts may potentially elevate the growth rate by the end of the year. 

Growth trends exhibit significant variation across different states. Texas, the foremost solar market in the nation, reported a 14% increase in capacity in early 2025, whereas California, a leader in clean energy, experienced only a 2% increase, significantly below the 13% annual average growth rate from 2020. Florida’s year-on-year growth of 8% is promising; however, there have been no utility-scale projects initiated since January. 

In contrast, Arizona has demonstrated a remarkable 24% increase in capacity, with additional growth noted in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Missouri, and Michigan. Market analysts foresee further increases in the upcoming months as developers aim to capitalize on the remaining federal subsidies prior to the 2026 deadline.