China Commits to New Emissions Reduction Target by 2035

China, recognized as the largest global emitter of greenhouse gases, has established its inaugural absolute emissions reduction target for the entire economy. President Xi Jinping announced a commitment to reduce emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, while simultaneously pledging to enhance the proportion of renewable energy sources, promote net forest growth, and increase the adoption of electric vehicles. This marks the first time China has shifted its target to achieve peak emissions by 2030, with a vision of attaining carbon neutrality by 2060.

Nevertheless, experts and observers highlight that this national emissions reduction target falls significantly short of what is necessary to align with the 1.5°C target established by the Paris Agreement. A 7-10% reduction translates to an annual decrease of 1.4 billion tons of emissions, which, while considerable, is still below the 30-50% reductions that many estimates suggest are required by 2035. Historically, China has demonstrated a capacity to exceed its climate objectives, having achieved its 2030 renewable energy capacity target six years ahead of schedule. This serves as a strong indication that China’s domestic decarbonization efforts may progress more rapidly than the official projections suggest.

Additionally, China has committed to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy portfolio to 30%, enhancing total installed wind and solar capacity to 3,600 GW, and broadening the scope of its national carbon trading system. These developments, along with recent indications of emissions beginning to plateau, suggest that China is entering a new phase in its energy transition. The implications of these actions will be substantial in relation to global climate objectives.