EU ETS | September 2024 Overview

During the first week of the month, further declines in EUAs were observed. The front-year contract dropped 5.41% from September 2nd to September 6th, compared to Friday, August 30th. Prices reached their lowest level since July 25th during the Thursday, September 5th session, with EUA DEC24 hitting €65.95 per ton in the afternoon. Despite an attempted rebound the following morning, the EUA failed to consolidate and resumed its decline toward the close on Friday, September 6th. EUAs broke through several support levels, trading below the lower Bollinger band for four consecutive sessions. This movement eventually slowed the collapse, and, in a market that was not yet in oversold territory, a first psychological support area was identified at around €66.00 per ton for EUA DEC24.

The EUA had room to drop to mid-July lows of €64.25 per ton and remained heavily influenced by TTF prices. The following week, from September 9th to September 13th, EUAs continued to lose ground, with a depreciation of 2.27% compared to Friday, September 6th. All weekly sessions were down, except Wednesday, September 11th, which saw an attempt at a rebound. However, the gains were not consolidated, and the front-year contract continued to decline in the following session, settling on Friday at a crucial support level of around €64.60 per ton. At this point, the bearish momentum appeared to dissipate, only to resume in the next session (the following Monday), where the support was broken, and EUA DEC24 dropped to a low of €63.42 per ton. This opened the possibility of falling to €61.50 per ton, an area where, in early April, a bullish pullback had been observed (the old resistance had now become the new support). The EUA remained strongly influenced by the TTF despite moments during the day when a decoupling occurred in the correlation between the prices of the two commodities.

From September 16th to September 20th, the EUA market remained bearish, with the DEC24 contract down 2.46% compared to Friday, September 13th. Lows not seen since early April reached €62.39 per ton on Thursday, September 19th. Almost all weekly sessions were bearish, except Tuesday, September 17th, when the EUA rebounded from the weekly low of €62.45 per ton. The market was in an oversold condition, making the rebound justifiable. Thursday, however, was the standout day of the week. In a strongly bullish morning session, the EUA was driven by the TTF surge and reached highs of €65.42 per ton (+€1.49 from the opening). However, in the early afternoon, within just ten minutes, it collapsed following initial market news about the Ukraine-Azerbaijan gas agreements. It appeared that the EUA had found a floor of around €62.40 per ton, where it bounced twice that week.

The last days of September saw a reversal of the short-term trend; indeed, an attempt at recovery for EUAs was noted, with some lost ground regained from September 23rd to September 27th, reaching intra-day highs of €66.97 per ton on Monday, September 30th.