The second week of October, from the 6th to the 10th confirmed the strong momentum in the European carbon market, with the EUA DEC25 contract posting a weekly gain of +1,18% compared to Friday, 3rd October, and closing at €79,68/ton — its highest level since July. After a firm start on Monday, supported by solid trading activity exceeding 31 million allowances, prices moved within a relatively stable range between €78,00 and €80,00/ton. Volatility remained limited, and market interest stayed consistently high. On Friday, 10th October, prices briefly exceeded the psychological threshold of €80,00/ton (peaking at €80,37/ton on the DEC25), as rising volumes and the absence of significant profit-taking allowed the market to close near fresh highs.
The last three sessions of the week were all bullish, repeatedly testing the upper Bollinger band, which continues to widen and open new room for price growth. Medium-term technical indicators (MACD) describe a sustained bullish setup, while short-term stochastic oscillators have started signaling a possible trend reversal, though not yet confirmed. Overall, the week reflected a consolidation phase around the €79,00/ton area, with sentiment turning increasingly positive thanks to a more stable energy backdrop and expectations of reduced supply in upcoming primary auctions.
The week from October 13th to 17th, 2025 confirmed the strong momentum of the European carbon market, with the EUA DEC25 contract gaining ground and closing well above €79/ton — its highest level since July, marking a weekly increase of +1.72%. The week started dynamically: on Monday, prices fluctuated between €77.76 and €79.74/ton, supported by solid trading volumes exceeding 32 million allowances. After a brief correction on Tuesday and Wednesday — with a weekly low at €76.68/ton — the market rebounded decisively, driven by renewed interest from financial participants and signs of firmness in industrial demand. From Wednesday onwards, three consecutive bullish sessions followed, as visible in the chart.
On Thursday and Friday, prices consolidated above €79/ton, with intraday peaks reaching €79.90/ton and rising volumes. The week therefore ended with a positive tone, fuelling expectations of further strength in the coming sessions, especially as the market approaches the fourth quarter, a period traditionally marked by higher volatility in the ETS. Technical indicators point to a bullish outlook both in the short and medium term. A potential breakout above the psychological threshold of €80/ton, followed by consolidation above this level, would further confirm the market’s upward structure, with €80/ton now standing as the key resistance level.
The week from 20th to 24th October 2025 saw a market in a slight consolidation phase, following the recent gains that had pushed prices to their highest levels since July. The weekly change was overall negative, with a 1.88% decline compared to Friday, 17th October. The EUA DEC25 contract traded mostly sideways, with moderate volatility and gradually decreasing volumes toward the end of the week. On Monday and Tuesday, the market maintained a positive tone, with prices reaching a weekly high of €79.99/t, supported by continued optimism about industrial demand resilience. However, from midweek onwards, selling pressure returned: between Wednesday and Friday, prices gradually declined, closing the week at €78.32/t. The 5-day moving average acted as a ceiling, with prices staying below it throughout the week. The first support level is now represented by the 50-day moving average, converging with the lower Bollinger band, currently around €76.30/t.
Average trading volumes last week, ranging between 17 and 25 million EUA per day, reflect a market awaiting new directional signals, balancing bullish factors linked to energy fundamentals against bearish pressure from auctions and a more cautious macroeconomic sentiment. The week from October 27th to 31st, 2025 marked a phase of relative stabilization for the European carbon market, following the slight correction observed in the previous week. The EUA DEC25 contract closed the period at €78.54/ton, posting a weekly gain of +0.99%. Overall, price action remained subdued, with limited volatility and moderate trading volumes ranging between 20 and 24 million allowances per day. Market participants maintained a cautious stance, balancing solid energy fundamentals against the absence of fresh price catalysts.
On Monday and Tuesday, prices fluctuated narrowly just below the €78/ton mark. In the middle of the week, a mild recovery lifted the contract to a weekly high of €79.54/ton on Thursday. However, month-end profit-taking pushed prices slightly back below the €79/ton threshold. From a technical standpoint, support remains in the €77.30/ton area, near the 50-day moving average and the lower Bollinger band — while the main resistance stands around €80/ton, a level the market has struggled to break convincingly since mid-October. In summary, the week’s dynamics reflected a consolidating market, awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals and potential shifts in industrial demand or auction supply. Although auction volumes remain stable, their influence on market sentiment is becoming gradually more tangible as year-end approaches.