The week from November 3rd to 7th, 2025 marked a moderate reversal in the European carbon market, following the strong rally of the previous two weeks that had pushed prices above the psychological threshold of €82/ton. The EUA DEC25 contract closed the week at €79.47/ton, down −2.13 percent compared to Friday, October 31st. The start of the week remained positive, with buying activity on Monday and Tuesday driving prices to a weekly high of €82.41/ton, supported by solid industrial demand and a broadly favourable sentiment across the energy complex.
However, from Wednesday onwards, a gradual round of profit taking brought prices back in line with short term fundamentals. On Thursday and Friday, the downward pressure intensified amid lighter trading volumes (below 33 million EUAs) and renewed uncertainty in energy markets. Prices consistently traded below the 5 day moving average, suggesting a potential short term consolidation phase.
From a technical perspective, the first support level then lay around €79.25/ton, close to the 20 day moving average, while the main resistance remained at €82/ton. Overall, the market appeared to be entering a phase of balance, awaiting new fundamental or macroeconomic drivers that could provide a clearer directional cue.
The week of 10th 14th November 2025 marked a clear improvement in sentiment across the European carbon market, with the EUA DEC25 contract recovering part of the previous losses and briefly returning above the 82,00 €/ton threshold during the mid week sessions. On a weekly basis, prices posted a gain of 1,21 percent. The rebound did not emerge immediately. Monday opened on a cautious note, with the contract closing at 79,96 €/ton amid relatively low volumes (28,3 million), reflecting prudence after the prior weeks correction.
However, by Tuesday momentum had already begun to strengthen, with prices testing 80,90 €/ton supported by renewed industrial buying. The key turning point came on Wednesday, 12th November, when trading volumes exceeded 41 million EUA and fuelled a decisive upward move, pushing the contract to its weekly high of 82,37 €/ton. Positive sentiment carried into Thursday as well, with a peak at 82,79 €/ton, underpinned by higher risk appetite and a more stable energy backdrop.
Friday brought a mild pullback, with the market closing at 80,93 €/ton, still comfortably above the levels seen at the start of the week and maintaining a constructive technical setup. The 79,00 €/ton support area continued to hold, while the 82,00 83,00 €/ton range remained the main resistance zone to watch. Should momentum have persisted, further tests towards 84,00 85,00 €/ton could not have been ruled out in the following weeks.
The week of 17 21 November 2025 showed a stable but directionless market, with limited movements and very low volatility. EUA DEC25 prices remained mostly within the €80,00 81,50/t range, failing to establish a clear trend. On a weekly basis, the EUA DEC25 posted a modest gain of 0,61 percent. On Monday, the market opened with a retreat toward €79,92/t, offset on Tuesday by a stronger rebound that pushed prices up to €81,22/t the weekly peak, also reached on Thursday.
From midweek onward, prices fluctuated within a narrow range: Wednesday and Thursday recorded highs of €81,59 and €81,89/t respectively, but both attempts to strengthen were rejected. Volumes, ranging between 28 and 41 million EUA, indicated an active yet uncommitted market, with participants awaiting clearer signals from energy fundamentals and auction supply.
Prices were positioned mid channel within the Bollinger Bands and near the 20 day moving average, leaving room for a decline toward €78,00/t, though the 50 day moving average, then at €78,85/t, might have provided support. Fridays close at €80,41/t captured the overall sentiment well: a market holding its ground but lacking both bullish and bearish momentum.
The week of 17 21 November 2025 showed a stable but directionless market, with limited movements and very low volatility. EUA DEC25 prices remained mostly within the €80,00 81,50/t range, failing to establish a clear trend. On a weekly basis, the EUA DEC25 posted a modest gain of 0,61 percent. On Monday, the market opened with a retreat toward €79,92/t, offset on Tuesday by a stronger rebound that pushed prices up to €81,22/t the weekly peak, also reached on Thursday.
From midweek onward, prices fluctuated within a narrow range: Wednesday and Thursday recorded highs of €81,59 and €81,89/t respectively, but both attempts to strengthen were rejected. Volumes, ranging between 28 and 41 million EUA, indicated an active yet uncommitted market, with participants awaiting clearer signals from energy fundamentals and auction supply.
Prices were positioned mid channel within the Bollinger Bands and near the 20 day moving average, leaving room for a decline toward €78,00/t, though the 50 day moving average, then at €78,85/t, might have provided support. Fridays close at €80,41/t captured the overall sentiment well: a market holding its ground but lacking both bullish and bearish momentum.
The week of 24 28 November 2025 saw a gradual strengthening of the EUA market, with the DEC25 contract climbing back above 82 €/ton and closing on Friday at the weeks, and the last eight months, high of 83,26 €/ton. On a weekly basis, this amounted to an appreciation of 3,29 percent. The movement was supported by sustained trading volumes, often exceeding 45 million EUA, indicating growing interest from market participants after the sideways phase of the previous weeks. On Monday, the market opened cautiously, closing at 80,61 €/ton after touching a low of 79,57 €/ton.
From Tuesday onward, a more pronounced recovery phase began: the price moved above 82 €/ton, supported by stronger demand and a less cautious sentiment on energy fundamentals. On Wednesday and Thursday, the contract consolidated this bullish setup, with highs at 82,34 and 82,52 €/ton respectively, before Fridays final acceleration, when the market posted a new weekly high at 83,32 €/ton, a level not seen since early September.
Overall, the week showed a market that seemed to be attempting a genuine change of pace. Volatility remained contained, but progressively higher highs and increasing volumes suggested a return of bullish momentum. The key resistance at 83,50 84,00 €/ton (and then the yearly highs at 84,50 €/ton) should then have been monitored closely, as it would have determined whether the trend could extend further.