EU ETS | November 2024 Overview

The first week of November, from the 4th to the 8th, saw a return of positive sentiment to the market, with the EUA DEC24 gaining a substantial 6.5% on a weekly basis compared to Friday, November 1st. The beginning of the week had been uncertain: on the ICE exchange, prices had seemed to move downward during the first three sessions, reaching lows of €62.37/tonne on Wednesday, the lowest levels since October 18th. However, during Thursday and Friday sessions, a bullish surge in EUA prices was observed, closing above €68/tonne on Friday and peaking at €68.28/tonne. On Thursday, November 7th, the 100-day moving average, which had served as resistance since September 3rd around €67.10/tonne, was broken to the upside. Prices were then trading near the upper Bollinger Band, and probabilistically, there wasn’t much room for further upward movement. However, the rising TTF price could have still provided support. An initial weak support area had been at €66.19/tonne, followed by the psychological level around €65/tonne.

The second week of November, from the 11th to the 15th, ended with a slight change compared to Friday, November 8th, as the market remained at the mercy of TTF movements. Weekly highs of €68.80/tonne were reached at the week’s close, marking the highest prices since September 4th. The period began weak for EUA DEC24, with the first three weekly sessions showing a slight downward trend. The price recovered on Thursday, November 14th, followed by an indecisive Friday. The weekly variation was -0.01%, meaning virtually no change compared to Friday, November 8th. The TTF had been at its highest levels in the past year, with prices exceeding €45/MWh for the first time since November 2023. As the end of 2024 approached, it was not surprising to expect the usual year-end rally, with prices gaining volatility around the turn of December.

The third week of November, from November 18th to 22nd, ended with a slight increase compared to Friday, November 15th, with EUA DEC24 marking +1.85%. The price rise had been relatively steady throughout the week, partly due to the European Commission’s announcement that it would not increase auction volumes for 2025, as it had for 2023 and 2024. This news naturally had a positive impact on prices. Once again, prices had been above €70/tonne, with peaks of €70.96/tonne reached during the session on Friday, November 22nd, marking the highest levels since August 29th. Prices had been moving within a narrow range, between the 5-day moving average €69.09/tonne and the upper Bollinger Band €70.95/tonne.

The fourth week of November, from the 25th to the 29th, saw the market close lower than Friday, November 22nd, with a weekly variation of -1.26%. Prices fell below €68/tonne, reaching lows of €67.13/tonne during Friday afternoon. The downward trend started on Monday, November 25th, and continued until Friday, when prices settled around the 20-day moving average, acting as the first level of support since mid-November €67.08/tonne.

The reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen to the European Commission did not appear to have significantly impacted prices, suggesting that the event was likely already priced in by market participants. Market liquidity had remained strong, with a weekly average of 28 million allowances traded on the DEC24 contract. However, open interest on the front-year contract had been steadily declining since mid-October, indicating that traders were likely rolling some positions to the upcoming benchmark contract, DEC25, which would take over in the coming weeks. Technical indicators were mixed: the short-term outlook suggested a bullish market in contrast to the last week’s medium-term indicators signaled a bearish reversal. Resistance remained at €71.54/tonne, a volume high identified on Monday, November 25th, before prices began to decline.