The week from 2nd to 6th March 2026 showed the EUA DEC26 market in a phase of adjustment following the volatility of previous weeks, with prices fluctuating around the €70.00/ton area. Compared with Friday, 27th February, the market posted a modest gain of +0.40%. After a start to the week marked by temporary weakness, with prices falling to €67.90/ton (Monday’s lows), the market reacted strongly in Tuesday’s session. A sharp increase in both volatility and volume pushed prices up, testing the €74–75/ton area. However, this recovery attempt failed to gain traction, and from the following session onward, prices gradually lost momentum, stabilising again around the €70–71/ton range. During the second half of the week, the market showed more contained movements, with volatility compressing and trading volumes slightly declining. This behaviour suggested a phase of technical consolidation, with the market appearing to find a temporary balance after February’s sell-off. From a technical perspective, the €69–70/ton area remained the primary short-term support, while the inability to hold above €73–74/ton confirmed significant resistance at recovery levels. Overall, the market still appeared to be in a base-building phase, awaiting new catalysts that could have determined its short-term direction.
The week from 9th to 13th March 2026 once again highlighted the fragility of the EUA DEC26 market, with a recovery attempt in the first half of the period followed by a sharp reversal in the second part. On a weekly basis, the EUA DEC26 depreciated by 2%. After a relatively stable start, the market extended its rebound toward the €73–74/ton area between Tuesday and Wednesday, with weekly highs at €74.48/ton during Wednesday’s session, confirming this level as a strong technical resistance. The inability to consolidate above this range quickly brought back selling pressure, culminating in Thursday’s session, which was characterized by a sharp increase in volumes and a wide intraday range that pushed prices down to lows of €67.82/ton. Friday saw a partial technical rebound, with the market recovering part of the losses but failing to move back toward the levels observed in the first half of the week. Overall, price dynamics continued to point to a bearish consolidation phase, where recovery attempts were systematically sold. From a technical perspective, the €67–68/ton area then emerged as the first short-term support, while the €73–74/ton range remained the key resistance that would have needed to be broken in order to reactivate a more convincing bullish move.
The week was dominated by a new phase of weakness for the EUA DEC26 contract, with the market progressively extending the bearish move that had already begun in previous weeks. Over the period, prices depreciated by 2.17%. After a relatively stable start around the €69/ton area, selling pressure intensified as early as Tuesday’s session, pushing prices rapidly lower toward new monthly lows, ultimately reaching €63.10/ton on Friday. The deterioration of the technical picture continued throughout the following sessions, with progressively lower closes and prices moving closer to the €63/ton area, a level already tested during Thursday’s trading. Higher volumes on down days confirmed fragile market sentiment and a predominance of short positions in the short term.
Friday’s session, however, showed a sudden shift in dynamics. After touching a new intraday low at €63.10/ton, the market reacted sharply, staging a strong intraday rebound that pushed prices up to €69.80/ton before closing at €67.66/ton. This move suggested opportunistic buying at lower levels and could have been the first sign of a potential stabilisation attempt. Despite the late recovery, the short-term technical outlook remained fragile. The €63–64/ton area then emerged as the first significant support, while a sustained move back above €70/ton would have been necessary to signal a more convincing shift in the market structure.
The week from 23rd to 27th March 2026 marked a gradual recovery for the EUA DEC26 contract, following the technical rebound observed at the end of the previous week. The market began the period with a volatile session, initially falling to €65.72/ton before quickly recovering and closing in positive territory. On a weekly basis, the increase was significant, with prices gaining +5.93%. In the following sessions, prices continued their upward movement, stabilising once again above the €70/ton threshold. Despite some intraday volatility, particularly during Wednesday’s session, the market progressively consolidated the recovered levels, with closing prices consistently within the €70–72/ton range during the second half of the week. The decline in trading volumes toward the end of the period suggested a phase of stabilisation after the recovery, with the market appearing to have temporarily found a new balance. From a technical perspective, the €70/ton area then emerged as the first short-term support level, while the €72–73/ton range represented the main resistance to be broken to confirm a more structural strengthening of the bullish trend.
The week between 30th March and 2nd April 2026 saw the EUA DEC26 contract attempt to extend the recovery that had begun in the second half of March, with prices gradually testing higher levels during the first part of the week. After two relatively stable opening sessions just above €72/ton, the market showed stronger momentum on Wednesday, when prices reached a weekly high of €74.91/ton, approaching the technical resistance area identified in previous weeks. This movement confirmed the gradual improvement in market sentiment observed in recent weeks. However, Thursday’s session showed that the €74–75/ton range remained a significant resistance level. After testing this area again early in the session, the market saw profit-taking, pushing prices back toward €71–72/ton by the close. Overall, the technical picture still pointed to a consolidation phase with a moderately bullish bias. Holding above €70/ton continued to signal a degree of stabilization after the sharp decline seen in February and early March, while a sustained move above €74–75/ton would have been needed to open the way for a broader upward movement in the short term.
