During the week of May 26th to June 2, 2025, the EUA DEC25 contract experienced a volatile and erratic performance, marked by high intraday volatility but with a gradual weakening of prices toward the end of the period. After a strong start on Monday, with the price closing at €73.03/ton, near the daily high, the market gradually declined throughout the week, losing momentum and closing on Monday, June 2, at €70.10/ton, a drop of approximately -4% from the weekly high and -2.04% compared to Friday, May 23rd. Thursday marked a turning point: the market saw a wide trading range between the daily high and low (€73.48/ton, the weekly high, and €70.65/ton), eventually closing at €70.94/ton, indicating increasing bearish pressure.
This movement was driven by the European Commission’s release of updated market surplus data, which showed an increase compared to the previous year, a bearish signal for prices. This downward trend continued on Friday and the following Monday, with respective closes at €70.41/ton and €70.10/ton, accompanied by sustained trading volumes (nearly 26.5 million on Monday, June 2nd), pointing to an active market dominated by selling pressure. Overall, the week ended with a more cautious sentiment, following an initial attempt to break through the resistance zone at €73–73.50/ton. The lack of upward momentum and the holding of support around €70/ton were key elements to watch in the coming days, particularly in light of potential implications from market fundamentals (auction supply and remaining compliance flows).
The following week, from June 9th to the 13th, the EUA DEC25 market showed renewed bullish momentum, closing with a weekly gain of +3.32% compared to Friday, June 6th. After a positive start on Monday, Tuesday saw a sharp downward correction, hitting an intraday low of €72.31/ton. However, this was the only bearish session of the week, as Wednesday brought renewed confidence among market participants, with a daily close well above €74/ton and a return of upward pressure.
The movement was confirmed by a strong increase in trading volumes during the second half of the week, culminating in Friday’s bullish breakout. The contract reached an intraday high of €76.75/ton, the highest level since March. EUA DEC25 thus broke through the strong resistance zone between €74.50 and €75.00/ton, setting the stage for further gains. Key technical indicators pointed to a bullish market, though with prices near the upper Bollinger Band, the pace of the upward move was expected to slow down.
From the 16th to the 20th, we saw renewed weakness in EUA DEC25 prices, with the full reversal of the gains recorded during the previous period: there was a -3.91% drop on Friday, June 20th, compared to the 13th of the month. Monday, June 16th, opened with an attempt to consolidate above the €75/ton level, reaching a weekly high of €76.47/ton. However, already by Tuesday, the market began to show signs of slowing down, closing at €74.64/ton.
Wednesday’s stability, with a slight rebound to €74.61/ton, was not enough to reverse the overall direction. The highs of the week were clustered between €76.47 and €75.66/ton, a range that now acted as key resistance, while short-term support had consolidated around €72.00/ton, a level where EUA DEC25 rebounded on both Thursday and Friday. The technical outlook now appeared weaker, and the market seemed to be in search of new fundamental drivers to determine a clearer direction. Main technical indicators pointed to a flat medium-term market (MACD) and a slightly bearish short-term trend (stochastic).
The last week of June, from the 23rd to the 27th, showed a further decline in prices, with a depreciation of -2.75% compared to Friday, June 20th. The week opened in a relatively stable environment: on Monday, the EUA DEC25 contract closed at €73.27/ton, slightly up from the previous week, with low volumes (26.6 million allowances traded) and a narrow price range. On Tuesday, the upward movement continued with a peak at €74.57/ton, the weekly high, and a close at €73.54/ton. Volumes rose significantly, indicating renewed market interest. However, starting Wednesday, a corrective phase began, lasting until the end of the week. The future lost more than €2/ton in a single session, closing at €71.15/ton, with an intraday high of €73.40/ton but failing to hold those levels. This marked a clear short-term reversal signal.
EUA DEC25 traded just above the lower Bollinger Band, which had been limiting losses since last Thursday. At the same level, around €70, sat the 365-day moving average, reinforcing the support zone. Although there appeared to be limited technical room for further downside, short- and medium-term indicators continued to suggest a bearish price outlook.
