The week from 29th June to 3rd July 2026 saw the EUA DEC26 contract recover quickly after the initial correction, highlighting the market’s resilience and capacity to bounce back. Monday’s session pushed prices below the €80.00/t threshold, with an intraday low of €78.31/t, but the market reacted the following day promptly. Every week, the overall move remained modest, with the front-year contract gaining 0.40% compared with Friday 26th June.
On Tuesday 30th June, the contract moved back above €80.00/t, recovering most of the previous losses thanks to a strong technical rebound. However, market participants remain cautious due to the upcoming EU ETS reform proposal expected in mid-July, which could significantly influence prices. Including this context helps readers understand potential future market drivers and uncertainties.
Friday’s close at €80.60/t, near the weekly highs, confirmed the market’s ability to absorb the selling pressure that had emerged at the end of June. From a technical perspective, the return above the €80.00/t level is a constructive signal, with the next resistance in the €81.50–82.00/t area. Clarifying the importance of these levels helps readers interpret technical signals more effectively.
The week from 6th to 10th July 2026 saw the EUA DEC26 contract interrupt the recovery observed at the beginning of the month and return to a consolidation phase with a slightly bearish bias. After Monday’s strong rally, which pushed prices to a weekly high of €82.00/t, the market failed to hold onto those gains and came under increasing selling pressure. Every week, the contract declined by 1.74%. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, prices lost more than €2.50/t, falling back below the €80.00/t threshold. Higher trading volumes accompanied the move on Wednesday, when more than 27 million allowances changed hands, signaling increased market activity during the correction. Over the final two sessions of the week, the market became more stable, trading within a relatively narrow €78.50–79.50/t range. The decline in trading volumes, culminating in just 13.21 million allowances traded on Friday, suggests a temporary slowdown in market activity and a more cautious stance among participants. With the approach of August, higher market volatility is expected, driven by the annual suspension of government auctions and the resulting increase in demand from the power sector on the secondary market.
The week from 13th to 17th July 2026 was marked by heightened volatility in the EUA DEC26 contract, with a sharp reversal during the second half of the week. After a positive start, the market moved back above the €81.00/t threshold, reaching a weekly high of €82.18/t on Wednesday. Every week, however, the market ended virtually unchanged, posting a marginal decline of 0.11% compared with Friday, 10th July. The attempt to consolidate at these higher levels quickly lost momentum. From Thursday onwards, significant profit-taking emerged, pushing prices back below €80.00/t, with the correction accelerating into Friday’s session. On the final trading day of the week, the contract fell to a weekly low of €76.92/t before recovering part of its losses to settle at €79.11/t. Trading volumes rose sharply to 35.39 million allowances, the highest level of the week, highlighting intense market activity during the correction. Overall, the market closed the week just below €79.50/t, confirming a weakening of the bullish momentum that had characterised previous weeks. From a technical perspective, the €79.00/t area now represents the first key support to watch to prevent a deeper correction, while a sustained move back above €81.00/t would be required to restore a more constructive short-term outlook.
The week from 20th to 24th July 2026 saw the EUA DEC26 contract stage a strong recovery, fully reversing the weakness observed during the second half of the previous week and moving back firmly above the €83,00/ton threshold. Compared with Friday, 17th July, the front-year contract gained 5,42%. The week opened with a powerful bullish move. On Monday, prices surged from an intraday low of €78,76/ton to settle at €83,27/ton, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. The rally continued on Wednesday, when the contract reached a new weekly high of €86,91/ton, supported by strong trading volumes and a marked return of buying interest. The rapid advance, however, triggered profit-taking during the second half of the week. On Thursday, the market surrendered part of its gains, closing below €84,00/ton, while Friday’s session saw prices stabilise around €83,40/ton, still well above the levels recorded at the beginning of the week. The decline in trading volumes during the final session suggests that market activity gradually cooled following the strong rally.
From a technical perspective, the outlook has turned constructive once again. The recovery above the €83,00/ton area reinforces the short-term bullish structure, while the €86,50–87,00/ton range now represents the key resistance that must be overcome to pave the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is located around €82,50–83,00/ton, and holding above this area will be crucial to preserving the positive momentum built over the past week.
