EU ETS | January 2025 Overview

The new year began with a slight contraction in EUA prices. From January 6th to the 10th, the DEC25 contract declined by 1.44%. Despite this, prices remained at their highest levels since last May, well above €70/ton, with peaks reaching €76.15/ton on Monday, January 6th and €75.18/ton on January 10th. The first three trading days resulted in the most significant losses for EUA prices, while the last two days saw a rebound and price recovery. Key short and medium-term technical indicators continued to show bullish signals, although the RSI approached overbought territory. An initial resistance area was found near the upper Bollinger Band at €78.46/ton, while the first support level was near Thursday’s volumetric low at €71.55/ton. Low temperatures and support from the TTF helped sustain prices.

During the second week of January, from the 13th to the 17th, the bullish trend extended with a 5.89% weekly appreciation. Prices once again broke the €80.00/ton barrier, reaching a peak of €80.50/ton for two consecutive sessions (Thursday, January 16th, and Friday, January 17th).

In the third week, from January 20th to the 24th, the market confirmed its bullish trend for EUA DEC25 prices, which gained 3.04% on a weekly basis. All weekly sessions were bullish except Wednesday, January 22nd, when the market pulled back from overbought territory, with the RSI dropping from 72 points. Prices appeared to be supported by the 5-day moving average, with a key support area rising day by day and settling at the end of the week at Friday’s daily low of €79.90/ton. The highs reached €82.00/ton on Thursday, January 23rd, marking the highest price for the front-year contract since October 30, 2023. The resistance at €80.50/ton was tested on Monday, January 20th, and Tuesday, January 21st, before being decisively broken during Thursday’s session. Prices remained heavily influenced by TTF movements.

During the last week of January, the market maintained its bullish trend, with a weekly variation of +2.77%. Yearly new highs were reached during Thursday’s session at €84.50/ton, which marked the highest level since October 16, 2023, surpassing all price levels seen in 2024.

EUA prices continued to be strongly influenced by TTF prices, which also exhibited an aggressive bullish trend during the week. On Monday, January 27th, EUA DEC25 appeared to signal a trend reversal, losing €2.31/ton in a single session and briefly trading around €79/ton. However, recoveries quickly followed the next day, with a surge on Wednesday, January 29th (+€2.69) and further growth on Thursday. After hitting new highs, EUA slowed down and closed slightly lower on Thursday, only to resume its upward movement the following day. Key technical indicators described a bullish market in the short and medium term, with a steady increase in long positions held by investment funds, seemingly confirming this trend.