The week from 2nd to 6th February 2026 marked a clear change of gear for the EUA DEC26 contract, as the market abruptly shifted from a consolidation phase around 83–84 €/ton to a rapid, deep correction in the second half of the week. On a weekly basis, losses were significant, amounting to -5.46%, underscoring a decisive deterioration in short-term sentiment. After a relatively stable start, during which prices held above the 80 €/ton threshold for the first three sessions, selling pressure gradually intensified.
The decisive break of this key psychological and technical level between Thursday and Friday triggered a more orderly but persistent downward move, accompanied by a sharp increase in volumes. This behaviour pointed to a clear and convincing reduction of long positions, rather than a simple technical pullback. Thursday was the most critical session of the week. Prices experienced a wide intraday range and closed near the lows, a classic signal that buyers had lost control of the market.
The sell-off continued on Friday, albeit with lower volatility, suggesting an initial phase of price stabilisation following the sharp decline. Weekly lows at 76.20 €/ton were reached during Friday’s session, after what proved to be a disastrous Thursday, when the DEC26 contract shed almost 5 €/ton in a single day. By the end of the week, prices had recovered slightly into the 78–79 €/ton area, levels not seen for several weeks and which then represented a first meaningful technical support. The structure of volumes throughout the period suggested that the move was not merely technical but reflected a broader rebalancing of short-term expectations.
After the strong January rally, the market appeared to digest the accumulated bullish excess before any attempt at renewed upside momentum.
The week from 9th to 13th February 2026 marked one of the most violent correction phases in recent months for the EUA DEC26 contract, with a sharp bearish acceleration that progressively erased any attempt at stabilisation. On a weekly basis, prices collapsed by 13.12%. After a technical rebound on Monday that briefly pushed prices back above €81.00/ton, the market quickly reversed course. Selling pressure intensified from Tuesday onwards, but during Thursday, 12th February, the real downside break unfolded. A wide intraday range combined with exceptionally high volumes—over 90 million EUAs traded—accompanied the decisive breach of supports in the €76–77/ton area.
Market weakness extended into Friday, with another close near the lows and prices sliding to the €70–71/ton range, levels not seen for some time. Weekly lows were recorded at €70.55/ton, marking the lowest quotations since May of the previous year. The intensity of trading over the final two sessions suggested a phase of forced liquidation and a sharp reduction in speculative exposure, rather than a mere technical adjustment. Overall, the short-term picture had deteriorated markedly. The cumulative losses effectively wiped out the entire January rally, pushing the DEC26 contract into a new phase of technical base rebuilding.
During the 16th and 20th of the month, the market closed that week with gains for the EUA DEC26 futures contract; on a weekly basis, an overall recovery of 6.65% occurred, moving from prices in the 69.00 €/ton range to highs of 74.50 €/ton during last Friday’s session. Volatility decreased compared to the previous week, with average trading ranges of about 3 €/ton.
Prices showed a steady upward trend, consolidating toward the end of the period. This was justifiable given the previous period’s crash: the market had also entered oversold territory, making a rebound more than predictable. Influencing factors included the European Commission’s proposals to review free allowances in the ETS and strengthen the CBAM mechanism from 2026, with effects on importers and industrial compliance. Market participants watched the 68 support level, where EUA DEC26 quotes bounced for three consecutive sessions (Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday), and the psychological resistance at around 75 euros per ton, where the bullish price rally stalled. From data published by the ICE exchange on operators’ open positions, it emerged that many market players (especially investment funds) continued to bet on the upward trend, given the substantial long positions accumulated in recent months.
The week from 23rd to 27th February 2026 saw the market consolidate following the technical rebound observed the previous week. After attempting an extension toward the €73.00–74.00/ton area, the contract progressively lost momentum, returning to trade more steadily around €70.00–71.00/ton. On a weekly basis, performance remained negative, with the front-year contract declining 1.53%.
The move appeared technically significant: the inability to maintain closes above €73.00/ton signalled selling pressure at recovery levels, with profit-taking limiting any bullish extension. Particularly noteworthy was Thursday’s session, marked by a sharp increase in volumes and more pronounced intraday volatility. Prices dropped to €69.25/ton, which then served as the first short-term technical support, before rebounding to a high just shy of €73 (€72.97/ton). Overall, the market appeared to have lost the momentum of the rebound and had entered a more neutral phase. The short-term structure remained fragile: a confirmed break below the €69/ton area could have reopened downside space toward the mid-month lows, while only a sustained move back above €73/ton would have reactivated a more constructive setup.
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.
