The week between 30th March and 2nd April 2026 showed an EUA DEC26 (EU ETS) market still in a recovery phase, but with signs of difficulty in maintaining higher levels. After a stable start slightly above €72,00/ton, prices strengthened during Wednesday’s session, when the market reached a weekly high of €74,91/ton, confirming an attempt to test the resistance area at €74,00–€75,00/ton. However, this move did not find follow-through. Thursday’s session in fact marked a sharp reversal, with profit-taking quickly driving prices down to a low of €71,25/ton, highlighting selling pressure at higher levels and a certain fragility in the short-term bullish trend.
Overall, the market remained in a consolidation phase with a slightly positive bias, as prices held above €71,00/ton. However, only a sustained move back above €74,00–€75,00/ton would have confirmed a more structural strengthening, while to the downside, the first support remained in the €71,00/ton area.
The shortened week between 7th and 10th April 2026 showed the EUA DEC26 market gradually strengthening, albeit within a still sideways context. After a stable start just above €71/ton, prices progressively gained ground, culminating on Thursday with a firm move back toward the €73–74/ton area. Over the period, the EUA DEC26 posted a +1,6% increase.
This move appeared technically relevant: for the first time in recent weeks, the market managed to consistently approach the upper resistance range, showing a more orderly and less volatile short-term structure. Friday’s session then reflected a typical consolidation phase, with declining volumes and prices holding just below weekly highs. Notably, the €74/ton level was tested three times during the week, confirming it as a key resistance that the market attempted to break but failed.
Overall, the picture remained one of consolidation with a slight bullish bias, supported by the market holding above €71/ton. However, confirmation of a more structural trend reversal would have required a clear and sustained break above the €74/ton area, which remained the main short-term technical barrier.
The week from 13th to 17th April 2026 marked a clear strengthening for the EUA DEC26 contract, with the market successfully breaking above the resistance range observed in previous weeks. As of the close on 20th April, the EUA DEC26 posted a +4,52% increase compared to Friday 10th.
After a stable start, Tuesday’s session triggered the bullish move, pushing prices back above €74/ton. In the following days, the market consolidated these levels, showing a more orderly structure and reduced volatility, a sign of stronger underlying demand. The turning point came on Friday, when a sharp increase in volumes supported an extension of the rally up to €78,07/ton, marking the weekly high and the highest settlement of the period. This breakout represented a key technical signal, as it effectively ended the sideways phase that had characterised the market for several weeks. Overall, the short-term outlook appeared constructive, with the market returning to a bullish setup. The €74–75/ton range then became the first support level, and holding above this area was crucial to sustain momentum and open the way to higher targets in the near term.
The week from 20th to 24th April 2026 saw the EUA DEC26 contract enter a natural consolidation phase following the strong rally recorded in the previous week. After moving above €78/ton on Friday 17th April, the market gradually corrected part of its gains, stabilising during the second half of the week around the €74–75/ton range. On a weekly basis, the overall move was negative, with the EUA DEC26 losing 3,3%. Selling pressure was concentrated mainly between Tuesday and Wednesday, when prices declined from opening levels above €76,00/ton (reference €76,95/ton on Monday 20th) to a weekly low of €74,09/ton, reached on Wednesday. However, the market showed a solid ability to absorb selling flows, reacting in the latter part of the week, and closing broadly unchanged between Thursday and Friday.
The significant drop in volumes compared with the previous week, with an average of 16,9 million allowances traded on the DEC26 contract, well below the monthly trend, suggested a less aggressive market, more driven by profit-taking and technical short-covering than by a genuine shift in sentiment. In this context, the €74/ton area emerged as the first short-term support, while the €76–78/ton range represented the main resistance to overcome to reactivate bullish momentum. Overall, the technical structure remained uncertain, with the MACD appearing completely flat on the medium-term horizon, while the stochastic oscillator was slightly bearish in the short term.
The week from 27th April to 1st May 2026 confirmed a consolidation phase for the EUA DEC26 contract, with prices moving within a relatively narrow range around €73,00–75,00/ton. On a weekly basis, performance remained negative, with the contract declining by 1,28%. After a stable start, the market attempted an upward extension on Tuesday, once again approaching the €75,00–76,00/ton range, but failing to consolidate above these levels. Wednesday’s session proved to be the key moment of the week: increased volatility and higher volumes accompanied a sharp reversal from intraday highs (€76,04/ton), with prices closing significantly lower at €73,20/ton, signalling the presence of selling pressure at higher levels. In the second half of the week, the market showed greater stability, with more contained price movements and gradually declining volumes, also influenced by the public holiday on Friday. Prices settled just below €74,00/ton, indicating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
From a technical perspective, the €73,00/ton area continued to act as the first short-term support, while the €75,00–76,00/ton range remained a key resistance zone. Overall, the market remained sideways, awaiting new catalysts to provide clearer near-term direction.
