During the week of March 31 to April 4, the EUA market came under significant bearish pressure, registering a weekly decline of 7.24 percent. This drop was primarily triggered by the announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump and a widespread loss of confidence that spread rapidly from Wednesday onward.
After a relatively stable opening on Monday, with a close at €67.98/ton, prices attempted a rebound on Tuesday, reaching a weekly high of €70.72/ton and closing at €69.86/ton. However, the positive momentum quickly faded. From Wednesday, April 2, the EUA DEC25 contract entered a correction phase that intensified in the latter half of the week. On Thursday, prices fell below €67/ton, followed by a weekly close on Friday at €63.82/ton, the lowest level since the previous month.
At that point, EUA DEC25 was trading aggressively below the lower Bollinger Band, a situation that statistically occurred less than 3 percent of the time. All major support levels were breached, and the market had room to decline further toward €53.00/ton, near the 2024 lows. Trading volumes remained strong throughout the week, peaking at over 64 million allowances exchanged on Friday, an indication of heightened activity and possible repositioning by market participants.
The following week, from April 7 to 11, opened with notable volatility. On Monday, prices rebounded to €65.24/ton but closed at €62.84/ton, with sustained trading volumes (66.18 million allowances). This marked a decline of nearly €1 compared to the previous Friday’s settlement, amid continued global market turmoil caused by U.S. tariffs.
On Tuesday, despite a slightly higher opening, prices fell and settled at €62.06/ton. The downward trend continued on Wednesday, closing at €60.94/ton, the weekly low. In the second half of the week, the market showed signs of recovery. On Thursday, despite a strong opening and an intraday high of €65.26/ton, the contract closed at €62.12/ton, still well below the session’s peak. On Friday, however, the market delivered a more decisive rebound, closing at €64.82/ton, returning to early-week levels, supported by decreasing but still solid volumes. This rebound was largely driven by the announcement of a suspension of U.S. tariffs.
During the week of April 14 to 18, 2025, the EUA DEC25 contract demonstrated relative stability with mixed signals, in a context of moderate volumes and reduced activity toward the end of the week due to a market closure on Friday. On Monday, the price opened with slight momentum, closing at €66.51/ton after reaching an intraday high of €67.33/ton. Volumes remained contained at approximately 28 million allowances.
On Tuesday, the market fluctuated slightly, hitting the weekly high at €67.95/ton before closing slightly lower at €66.19/ton, with stable volumes around 27.3 million units. Wednesday saw a modest rebound, with the contract closing at €66.97/ton amid tighter trading ranges and decent market interest. On Thursday, prices dipped slightly to €65.89/ton, accompanied by a contraction in volume (21.38 million), reflecting a cautious atmosphere ahead of the long weekend. The market remained closed on Friday, April 18, due to a public holiday, concluding a balanced week with no sharp movements, though daily volatility persisted.
Between April 21 and 25, the EUA DEC25 contract showed a moderate recovery in volatility, marked by more pronounced daily movements and relatively stable trading volumes. Over the period (Tuesday to Friday), the allowance appreciated by 0.82 percent.
On Tuesday, April 22, the market opened the week with a weak session, the contract closed at €64.39/ton, after hitting a high of €65.94/ton and a low of €63.61/ton. The following session saw a strong rebound, with the price closing at €66.90/ton, driven by an intraday high of €67.30/ton and supported by increased volume (32.34 million allowances).
On Thursday, April 24, the market experienced a slight decline. Despite a national holiday in Italy, Friday’s session remained contained but positive, closing at €66.43/ton after reaching a high of €67.63/ton and a low of €66.24/ton, with reduced volumes of 24.75 million units.
During this week, the EUA DEC25 contract showed a decent stabilization above the support level of around €64/ton, which held firm during pullbacks. At the same time, the €67 to €67.50/ton range emerged as a dynamic resistance, which the market struggled to surpass. The trading range remained clearly defined between €64/ton and €67/ton.
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.