COP30 in Belém, Brazil, which took place between November 10 and 21, 2025, was described by many observers as “The COP of Truth.” In fact, this is exactly what happened: COP 30 revealed the truth about current international climate policy, achieving significant progress on important issues such as climate finance, adaptation, and climate justice, but once again postponing the fundamental problem at the heart of it all, namely the elimination of fossil fuels. Climate finance is therefore the real winner of this COP, with results never before achieved.
For the first time, a real economic fund has been allocated to developing countries, amounting to $1.3 trillion per year until 2035, and an increase in adaptation funds has been confirmed, which are set to triple by the same date. In this context, the Conference of the Parties initiated discussions on the development of rules relating to Articles 9 and 2 of the Paris Agreement, which govern financial relations between developed and developing countries and define the responsibility of developed countries to provide public funding to developing countries, with the obligation to realign most financial flows with climate objectives.
Another critical outcome related to climate finance is adaptation policies, which have historically been undervalued compared to mitigation policies. COP30 approved 59 voluntary global indicators to monitor progress towards the Global Adaptation Goal, enabling countries to assess their progress, identify vulnerabilities, and define areas for investment. The Conference also produced other remarkable results, including two voluntary initiatives aimed at addressing current gaps in national climate plans: the Global Implementation Accelerator, a voluntary agreement designed to support the implementation of NDCs (National Determined Contributions), and the Belém Mission to 1.5, a roadmap for reducing emissions, to go beyond the official negotiation process and allow greater autonomy for states and institutions in achieving climate results.
Another unprecedented and valuable result of this COP is the role that has been guaranteed for the first time to international trade in climate policy, with a specific positive reference to the CBAM, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implemented by the European Union to enable a reduction in emissions while protecting the competitiveness of European industries, to discourage the leakage of production of certain high-emission goods from the European border. This measure, perceived by China, India, and Saudi Arabia as protectionist, has, however, led to unprecedented behavior on the part of COP30, which has responded by establishing an annual dialogue table that will discuss international trade and climate for three years, in collaboration with the World Trade Organization.
Another notable result was achieved in the social sphere and in the area of climate justice. Here too, COP30 went beyond what had been achieved in previous years, launching a socio-economic mechanism among the countries involved to support the transition and, at the same time, the rights of workers, communities, and indigenous peoples. An initiative, the Health Action Plan, was also promoted, which includes 60 actions that governments must implement to monitor and protect the health of cities and communities. A global commitment was also made to combat climate misinformation to encourage greater scientific knowledge and the public dissemination of the facts underlying climate change.
A mixed result was achieved in forest protection. In this sector, announcements were made to reverse deforestation, and Brazil established a financial fund for forest protection, Tropical Forests Forever, which, however, raised only $6.7 billion of the $25 billion initial target.
Let us now turn to the great disappointment of this Conference: the stubborn refusal to address the crucial issue in the fight against climate change, namely, the elimination or at least the gradual reduction of fossil fuels. While the need to finance concrete actions to reduce the gap between developed and underdeveloped countries was first proclaimed, the rationale for this financing was effectively omitted. COP28 was expected to push forward in this area. Yet, once again, opposition from major oil producers prevailed, as did the increasingly evident influence of emerging blocs such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), all in a geopolitical context marked for the first time since the Paris Agreement by the absence of the United States from the multilateral debate. Trump’s policy has, for the moment, effectively achieved its main results, leaving a vacuum that has predictably favored fossil fuel producers.
The European Union has always shown its commitment to the fight against global warming, but this time it found itself weakened on the diplomatic front. Despite presenting one of the most ambitious climate plans in the world, with a projected reduction in emissions of between 66% and 72.5% by 2035, the Union was unable to exert sufficient pressure to push negotiators to focus on fossil fuels in the final text, under the influence of emerging countries and major fossil fuel producers who were going for a final agreement that focused solely on climate finance. China did not speak much at this COP, but it was able to rely on its already established economic strength in renewable energy.
Another major disappointment in Belém concerned the National Climate Plans, i.e., each country’s climate commitments (NDCs). One hundred nineteen countries submitted their plans, but overall, these cover less than 15% of the reductions needed to keep warming below 1.5°C. COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago, in a note of regret at the end of the Conference, acknowledged that many countries had “greater ambitions,” announcing two unilateral, voluntary initiatives by the Brazilian government outside the COP to address deforestation and fossil fuels. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “I cannot pretend that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed,” but he was nevertheless surprised by the results achieved in climate finance.
At the next COP, the 31st, in Turkey, we hope to see greater political momentum for substantial emissions reductions.